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Finn Harps vs Cork City Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:45

Finn Harps

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cork City

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-113.7%0-211.0%0-35.9%0-4+3.4%1 1-07.3%1-111.7%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.1%2-15.0%2-24.0%2-32.2%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.9%3-11.4%3-21.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.0% 12.5% 8.00 +50.4%

Draw 24.1% 18.9% 5.30 +16.6%

Away win 52.9% 75.8% 1.32 -30.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 66.7% 1.50 -24.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 44.4% 2.25 -21.0%

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 32.6% 25.0% 4.00 +30.4%

Away O1.5 48.0% 74.1% 1.35 -35.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.6%

A 53% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 0–1 13.7%

#3 0–2 11.0%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Finn Harps0.9

Cork City1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FINN HARPS · PPG 1.33

CORK CITY · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.75 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Finn Harps (H) 23.0%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +50.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +16.6%

Cork City (A) 52.9%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV -30.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Finn Harps face Cork City in Ireland - First Division on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Finn Harps a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Cork City 53%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Finn Harps and 1.6 for Cork City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Finn Harps are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Cork City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +30.4%.

Finn Harps vs Cork City Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions