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Bray Wanderers vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:45

Bray Wanderers

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kerry

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.7%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-16.9%1-22.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-19.0%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-17.8%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.0%4+-19.5%4+-23.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.7% 61.3% 1.63 +8.7%

Draw 17.3% 25.6% 3.90 -19.5%

Away win 16.0% 20.0% 5.00 -12.0%

Over 2.5 64.0% 55.6% 1.80 +15.2%

Over 3.5 42.6% 33.9% 2.95 +25.7%

BTTS 55.2% 57.1% 1.75 -3.4%

Home O1.5 64.0% 58.8% 1.70 +8.8%

Away O1.5 20.3% 28.2% 3.55 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.2%

H 67% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 3–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bray Wanderers2.6

Kerry0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 2.33

KERRY · PPG 0.58

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.81 for Home, form 2.33 vs 0.58 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bray Wanderers (H) 66.7%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV +8.7%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -19.5%

Kerry (A) 16.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bray Wanderers face Kerry in Ireland - First Division on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bray Wanderers a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Kerry 16%, so Bray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Bray Wanderers and 0.8 for Kerry (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bray Wanderers are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.58 for Kerry. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.7%.

Bray Wanderers vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions