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Treaty United vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:45

Treaty United

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Longford Town

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.3%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.0%1-112.3%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.2%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.6%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 43.9% 2.28 +15.4%

Draw 25.1% 29.9% 3.35 -9.6%

Away win 24.3% 33.6% 2.98 -16.6%

Over 2.5 53.4% 52.6% 1.90 +1.5%

Over 3.5 32.2% 30.8% 3.25 +4.7%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 46.5% 2.15 -2.4%

Away O1.5 27.6% 38.5% 2.60 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treaty United1.5

Longford Town0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TREATY UNITED · PPG 1.50

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Treaty United (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +15.4%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.6%

Longford Town (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Treaty United face Longford Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treaty United a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Longford Town 24%, so Treaty United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Treaty United and 0.9 for Longford Town (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treaty United are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.92 for Longford Town. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.7%.

Treaty United vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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