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Neftchi vs Navbahor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Regular Season - 14 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 15:00

Neftchi

PPG 2.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Navbahor

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-16.0%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.0%1-110.2%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-18.7%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.2%3-14.9%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 18.9% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.0%

#2 2–0 14.5%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neftchi1.7

Navbahor0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NEFTCHI · PPG 2.57

NAVBAHOR · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Neftchi (H) 56.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Navbahor (A) 18.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Neftchi face Navbahor in Uzbekistan - Super League on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neftchi a 57% chance, the draw 25% and Navbahor 19%, so Neftchi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Neftchi and 0.6 for Navbahor (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neftchi are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.86 for Navbahor.

Neftchi vs Navbahor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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