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Nasaf vs Qizilqum Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Regular Season - 14 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 15:00

Nasaf

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qizilqum

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-110.5%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-112.4%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.1%2-17.3%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-12.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% — — —

Draw 31.2% — — —

Away win 23.4% — — —

Over 2.5 39.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.7% — — —

BTTS 46.7% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.7%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.0%

#2 1–0 18.8%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nasaf1.2

Qizilqum0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NASAF · PPG 1.33

QIZILQUM · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nasaf (H) 45.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Qizilqum (A) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nasaf face Qizilqum in Uzbekistan - Super League on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nasaf a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Qizilqum 23%, so Nasaf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nasaf and 0.7 for Qizilqum (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nasaf are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Qizilqum.

Nasaf vs Qizilqum Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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