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Orsomarso vs Barranquilla Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura - 1 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 22:00

Orsomarso

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Barranquilla

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-113.1%0-26.6%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.4%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.9%2-17.0%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.4%3-12.4%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 51.3% 1.95 -19.5%

Draw 30.2% 35.7% 2.80 -15.4%

Away win 28.5% 26.3% 3.80 +5.0%

Over 2.5 43.6% 42.0% 2.38 +3.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% 23.5% 4.25 -1.4%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 35.0% 43.3% 2.31 -19.1%

Away O1.5 30.5% 26.0% 3.84 +17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

H 41% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orsomarso1.0

Barranquilla1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ORSOMARSO · PPG 1.14

BARRANQUILLA · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.03, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orsomarso (H) 41.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -19.5%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.4%

Barranquilla (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orsomarso face Barranquilla in Colombia - Primera B on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orsomarso a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Barranquilla 28%, so Orsomarso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Orsomarso and 1.0 for Barranquilla (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orsomarso are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.10 for Barranquilla. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +35.0%.

Orsomarso vs Barranquilla Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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