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Barrancas UMET vs Ezeiza Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Regular Season - 10 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 13:00

Barrancas UMET

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ezeiza

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.0%0-112.0%0-23.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-112.4%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.0%2-16.3%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.2%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 30.9% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 33.6% — — —

Over 3.5 17.1% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 18.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 100%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.4%

H 46% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.0%

#2 1–0 19.5%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barrancas UMET1.0

Ezeiza0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRANCAS UMET · PPG 2.50

EZEIZA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 1.66 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Barrancas UMET (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ezeiza (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Barrancas UMET face Ezeiza in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barrancas UMET a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Ezeiza 24%, so Barrancas UMET are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Barrancas UMET and 0.6 for Ezeiza (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barrancas UMET are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Ezeiza.

Barrancas UMET vs Ezeiza Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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