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Vizela vs Farense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Vizela

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Farense

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

// Model verdict

Home 52% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+11.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-17.9%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.5%1-111.7%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-18.7%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.3%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 50.0% 2.00 +11.6%

Draw 26.4% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

Away win 17.9% 28.2% 3.55 -36.5%

Over 2.5 37.6% 48.8% 2.05 -22.9%

Over 3.5 18.0% 27.4% 3.65 -34.3%

BTTS 39.3% 55.6% 1.80 -29.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob39.3%

H 56% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 2–0 12.3%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 0–0 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vizela1.5

Farense0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VIZELA · PPG 1.57

FARENSE · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Vizela (H) 55.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +11.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.2%

Farense (A) 17.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vizela face Farense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vizela a 56% chance, the draw 26% and Farense 18%, so Vizela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Vizela and 0.7 for Farense (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vizela are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.21 for Farense. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Vizela vs Farense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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