Today / Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana / San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo

San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

San Martín Burzaco

PPG 0.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.4%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.0%1-112.4%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.2%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.5%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 38.2% 2.62 +26.6%

Draw 26.1% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

Away win 25.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 40.8% 2.45 +23.5%

Over 3.5 28.9% 22.2% 4.50 +18.0%

BTTS 52.6% 51.3% 1.95 +2.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 35.1% 2.85 +29.4%

Away O1.5 34.8% 35.1% 2.85 -0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 29.5%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 0–0 8.1%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martín Burzaco1.5

Deportivo Merlo1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTÍN BURZACO · PPG 0.92

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.08

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Martín Burzaco (H) 48.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +26.6%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.0%

Deportivo Merlo (A) 25.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martín Burzaco face Deportivo Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martín Burzaco a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Deportivo Merlo 26%, so San Martín Burzaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for San Martín Burzaco and 1.0 for Deportivo Merlo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martín Burzaco are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.08 for Deportivo Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +40.1%.

San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Predictions