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Excursionistas vs Deportivo Armenio Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 23:00

Excursionistas

PPG 1.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Armenio

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.2%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-110.6%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-15.3%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 54.1% 1.85 +1.6%

Draw 23.7% 32.3% 3.10 -15.9%

Away win 21.4% 23.8% 4.20 -6.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 40.8% 2.45 +23.5%

Over 3.5 28.9% 22.2% 4.50 +18.0%

BTTS 49.2% 47.6% 2.10 +3.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 45.5% 2.20 +8.7%

Away O1.5 20.3% 23.8% 4.20 -8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 25.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 2–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excursionistas1.7

Deportivo Armenio0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 1.92

DEPORTIVO ARMENIO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Excursionistas (H) 54.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +1.6%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.9%

Deportivo Armenio (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Excursionistas face Deportivo Armenio in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excursionistas a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Deportivo Armenio 21%, so Excursionistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Excursionistas and 0.7 for Deportivo Armenio (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excursionistas are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportivo Armenio. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.5%.

Excursionistas vs Deportivo Armenio Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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