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Villa San Carlos vs Dock Sud Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

Villa San Carlos

PPG 0.85 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dock Sud

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-113.8%0-27.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.1%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.4%2-16.6%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.1%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 34.5% 2.90 +5.0%

Draw 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Away win 32.9% 42.0% 2.38 -21.7%

Over 2.5 37.3% 38.5% 2.60 -3.0%

Over 3.5 20.3% 18.2% 5.50 +7.0%

BTTS 48.7% 47.6% 2.10 +2.3%

Home O1.5 32.6% 30.3% 3.30 +7.6%

Away O1.5 34.3% 35.7% 2.80 -4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 29.5%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

D 31% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 0–1 13.8%

#4 1–0 13.1%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa San Carlos1.0

Dock Sud1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA SAN CARLOS · PPG 0.85

DOCK SUD · PPG 0.85

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.05, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Villa San Carlos (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +5.0%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.3%

Dock Sud (A) 32.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa San Carlos face Dock Sud in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa San Carlos a 36% chance, the draw 31% and Dock Sud 33%, so Villa San Carlos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Villa San Carlos and 1.0 for Dock Sud (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa San Carlos are averaging 0.85 points per game versus 0.85 for Dock Sud. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +40.4%.

Villa San Carlos vs Dock Sud Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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