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Villa Dalmine vs Flandria Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

Villa Dalmine

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flandria

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-17.5%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.1%1-110.2%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.9%2-16.9%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.7%3-13.1%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 51.3% 1.95 +4.5%

Draw 27.6% 33.9% 2.95 -11.2%

Away win 18.8% 25.3% 3.95 -15.4%

Over 2.5 37.3% 37.0% 2.70 +0.7%

Over 3.5 17.7% 18.2% 5.50 -1.6%

BTTS 44.5% 45.5% 2.20 -2.1%

Home O1.5 38.3% 40.8% 2.45 -6.2%

Away O1.5 16.5% 23.1% 4.33 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 25.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.5%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.1%

#2 0–0 16.3%

#3 2–0 14.9%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa Dalmine1.4

Flandria0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 1.62

FLANDRIA · PPG 0.69

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Villa Dalmine (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +4.5%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -11.2%

Flandria (A) 18.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Dalmine face Flandria in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Dalmine a 54% chance, the draw 28% and Flandria 19%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Villa Dalmine and 0.5 for Flandria (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Dalmine are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.69 for Flandria. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.0%.

Villa Dalmine vs Flandria Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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