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UAI Urquiza vs Argentino Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

UAI Urquiza

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Argentino Quilmes

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.9%0-118.1%0-26.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.1%1-112.2%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.4%2-14.1%2-21.6%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.2%3-10.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 40.0% 2.50 -6.3%

Draw 33.7% 33.3% 3.00 +1.1%

Away win 28.9% 36.4% 2.75 -12.3%

Over 2.5 33.6% 40.8% 2.45 -17.7%

Over 3.5 13.1% 22.2% 4.50 -24.6%

BTTS 44.5% 51.3% 1.95 -13.2%

Home O1.5 32.6% 36.4% 2.75 -10.3%

Away O1.5 20.3% 33.3% 3.00 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 25.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.5%

D 34% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.9%

#2 0–1 18.1%

#3 1–0 16.1%

#4 1–1 12.2%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UAI Urquiza0.7

Argentino Quilmes0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UAI URQUIZA · PPG 1.00

ARGENTINO QUILMES · PPG 1.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 1.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

UAI Urquiza (H) 37.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -6.3%

Draw 33.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +1.1%

Argentino Quilmes (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

UAI Urquiza face Argentino Quilmes in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UAI Urquiza a 38% chance, the draw 34% and Argentino Quilmes 29%, so UAI Urquiza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for UAI Urquiza and 0.8 for Argentino Quilmes (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UAI Urquiza are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.08 for Argentino Quilmes.

UAI Urquiza vs Argentino Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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