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Arsenal Sarandi vs Brown DE Adrogue Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:00

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 2.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brown DE Adrogue

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-17.4%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.0%1-110.4%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-17.3%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.9%3-13.4%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-11.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 62.5% 1.60 -13.6%

Draw 27.1% 28.6% 3.50 -3.1%

Away win 18.9% 19.0% 5.25 -0.5%

Over 2.5 37.3% 48.8% 2.05 -23.5%

Over 3.5 18.6% 27.0% 3.70 -18.7%

BTTS 44.7% 50.0% 2.00 -10.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 55.6% 1.80 -18.3%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 25.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.7%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.0%

#2 0–0 15.0%

#3 2–0 14.8%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal Sarandi1.4

Brown DE Adrogue0.5

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 2.08

BROWN DE ADROGUE · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal Sarandi (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -13.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.1%

Brown DE Adrogue (A) 18.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal Sarandi face Brown DE Adrogue in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal Sarandi a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Brown DE Adrogue 19%, so Arsenal Sarandi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Arsenal Sarandi and 0.5 for Brown DE Adrogue (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal Sarandi are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.08 for Brown DE Adrogue.

Arsenal Sarandi vs Brown DE Adrogue Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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