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Argentino de Merlo vs Deportivo Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

Argentino de Merlo

PPG 1.46 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Laferrere

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-110.0%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-113.0%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.5%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.7%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 42.0% 2.38 +9.2%

Draw 26.8% 33.3% 3.00 -11.8%

Away win 27.4% 34.5% 2.90 -12.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 42.6% 2.35 +18.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 23.1% 4.33 +15.1%

BTTS 52.6% 51.8% 1.93 +1.5%

Home O1.5 38.3% 38.5% 2.60 -0.4%

Away O1.5 28.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 25.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino de Merlo1.3

Deportivo Laferrere1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO DE MERLO · PPG 1.46

DEPORTIVO LAFERRERE · PPG 1.46

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Argentino de Merlo (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +9.2%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.8%

Deportivo Laferrere (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino de Merlo face Deportivo Laferrere in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino de Merlo a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Laferrere 27%, so Argentino de Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Argentino de Merlo and 1.0 for Deportivo Laferrere (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino de Merlo are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.46 for Deportivo Laferrere. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +35.6%.

Argentino de Merlo vs Deportivo Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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