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Ciudad de Bolívar vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

Ciudad de Bolívar

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico Mitre

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+22.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-17.4%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-111.1%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-18.3%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-14.2%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 44.4% 2.25 +22.9%

Draw 24.2% 38.5% 2.60 -22.3%

Away win 21.3% 27.0% 3.70 -12.7%

Over 2.5 45.7% 30.8% 3.25 +48.5%

Over 3.5 27.7% 12.5% 8.00 +73.0%

BTTS 48.7% 40.8% 2.45 +19.3%

Home O1.5 45.4% 33.3% 3.00 +36.2%

Away O1.5 17.4% 22.2% 4.50 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 55% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.1%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 13.6%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ciudad de Bolívar1.5

Atletico Mitre0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CIUDAD DE BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.27

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ciudad de Bolívar (H) 54.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +22.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -22.3%

Atletico Mitre (A) 21.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ciudad de Bolívar face Atletico Mitre in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ciudad de Bolívar a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Atletico Mitre 21%, so Ciudad de Bolívar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ciudad de Bolívar and 0.6 for Atletico Mitre (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ciudad de Bolívar are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.64 for Atletico Mitre. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +78.8%.

Ciudad de Bolívar vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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