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Bashkimi vs Struga Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Bashkimi

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Struga

PPG 2.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 74.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+49.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-110.2%0-212.4%0-310.1%0-4+10.9%1 1-03.1%1-17.5%1-29.2%1-37.4%1-4+8.0%2 2-01.1%2-12.8%2-23.4%2-32.7%2-4+3.0%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.3% 32.3% 3.10 -71.2%

Draw 15.9% 29.4% 3.40 -45.9%

Away win 74.8% 50.0% 2.00 +49.6%

Over 2.5 61.4% 57.1% 1.75 +7.4%

Over 3.5 39.1% — — —

BTTS 47.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob47.5%

A 75% / xG 0.7-2.4 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.4%

#2 0–1 10.2%

#3 0–3 10.1%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bashkimi0.7

Struga2.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BASHKIMI · PPG 1.57

STRUGA · PPG 2.31

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs Home GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Bashkimi (H) 9.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -71.2%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -45.9%

Struga (A) 74.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +49.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bashkimi face Struga in Macedonia - First League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bashkimi a 9% chance, the draw 16% and Struga 75%, so Struga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Bashkimi and 2.4 for Struga (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bashkimi are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.31 for Struga. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.6%. This match finished 0-4.

Bashkimi vs Struga Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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