Today / Russia - Premier League / Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow

Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 17:30

Akhmat

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Spartak Moscow

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-110.2%0-26.3%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.3%1-112.8%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.5%2-18.1%2-25.0%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.7%3-13.4%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 25.8% 3.88 +53.6%

Draw 26.7% 26.9% 3.72 -0.4%

Away win 33.7% 50.8% 1.97 -33.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.8% 1.93 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 32.3% 3.10 -6.3%

BTTS 55.4% 57.5% 1.74 -3.6%

Home O1.5 35.0% 32.3% 3.10 +8.5%

Away O1.5 36.5% 50.5% 1.98 -27.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -15.7%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akhmat1.3

Spartak Moscow1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AKHMAT · PPG 1.70

SPARTAK MOSCOW · PPG 1.35

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Akhmat (H) 39.6%

ODDS 3.88 · IMPLIED 25.8% EV +53.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.72 · IMPLIED 26.9% EV -0.4%

Spartak Moscow (A) 33.7%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Akhmat face Spartak Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akhmat a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Spartak Moscow 34%, so Akhmat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Akhmat and 1.2 for Spartak Moscow (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akhmat are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.35 for Spartak Moscow. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.5%.

Akhmat vs Spartak Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Russia - Premier League Predictions