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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 17:30

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Puszcza Niepołomice

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.3%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.6%1-111.1%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.7%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 43.5% 2.30 +21.7%

Draw 24.1% 32.3% 3.10 -15.2%

Away win 23.0% 37.0% 2.70 -22.7%

Over 2.5 53.4% 57.8% 1.73 -7.6%

Over 3.5 32.2% 36.4% 2.75 -11.5%

BTTS 55.0% 63.7% 1.57 -13.7%

Home O1.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Away O1.5 28.2% 44.4% 2.25 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.0%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki1.8

Puszcza Niepołomice1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

POGOŃ GROD. MAZOWIECKI · PPG 1.60

PUSZCZA NIEPOŁOMICE · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +21.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.2%

Puszcza Niepołomice (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki face Puszcza Niepołomice in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Puszcza Niepołomice 23%, so Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 1.0 for Puszcza Niepołomice (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.36 for Puszcza Niepołomice. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.3%.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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