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Ruch Chorzów vs Miedz Legnica Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 12:30

Ruch Chorzów

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Miedz Legnica

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.2%0-24.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.8%1-111.5%1-27.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.1%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-14.8%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 48.8% 2.05 -4.7%

Draw 25.0% 29.4% 3.40 -9.0%

Away win 28.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 57.8% 1.73 +5.9%

Over 3.5 36.8% 36.4% 2.75 +1.2%

BTTS 60.0% 61.7% 1.62 -2.8%

Home O1.5 49.4% 52.4% 1.91 -5.7%

Away O1.5 40.8% 40.0% 2.50 +2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.0%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ruch Chorzów1.6

Miedz Legnica1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RUCH CHORZÓW · PPG 1.71

MIEDZ LEGNICA · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ruch Chorzów (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -4.7%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.0%

Miedz Legnica (A) 28.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ruch Chorzów face Miedz Legnica in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ruch Chorzów a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Miedz Legnica 29%, so Ruch Chorzów are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ruch Chorzów and 1.3 for Miedz Legnica (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ruch Chorzów are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.21 for Miedz Legnica. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Ruch Chorzów vs Miedz Legnica Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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