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Xorazm vs Surkhon Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Regular Season - 14 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 15:00

Xorazm

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Surkhon

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-110.7%0-26.3%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.1%1-113.1%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.8%2-18.0%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.8%3-13.2%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% — — —

Draw 26.2% — — —

Away win 34.1% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 29.5% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 36.8% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xorazm1.2

Surkhon1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

XORAZM · PPG 1.17

SURKHON · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Xorazm (H) 39.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Surkhon (A) 34.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Xorazm face Surkhon in Uzbekistan - Super League on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xorazm a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Surkhon 34%, so Xorazm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Xorazm and 1.2 for Surkhon (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xorazm are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.17 for Surkhon.

Xorazm vs Surkhon Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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