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Lokomotiv vs Sogdiana Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 15:00

Lokomotiv

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sogdiana

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.7%0-22.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.6%1-18.2%1-26.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.6%3-16.7%3-24.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.2%4+-24.5%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 27.6% — — —

Over 2.5 66.0% — — —

Over 3.5 43.9% — — —

BTTS 64.1% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 13.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.1%

H 50% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv2.2

Sogdiana1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV · PPG 1.50

SOGDIANA · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv (H) 50.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sogdiana (A) 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv face Sogdiana in Uzbekistan - Super League on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Sogdiana 28%, so Lokomotiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Lokomotiv and 1.5 for Sogdiana (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.83 for Sogdiana.

Lokomotiv vs Sogdiana Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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