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FC Sion vs FC Luzern Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Regular Season - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:30

FC Sion

PPG 1.69 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Luzern

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.9%0-23.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.3%1-18.3%1-26.6%1-33.5%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.5%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.9%3-16.2%3-24.9%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.3%4+-24.2%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 48.8% 2.05 +1.9%

Draw 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Away win 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

Over 2.5 67.0% 64.5% 1.55 +3.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 42.6% 2.35 +5.3%

BTTS 63.5% 69.0% 1.45 -7.9%

Home O1.5 60.1% 57.1% 1.75 +5.2%

Away O1.5 48.0% 44.4% 2.25 +8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Sion2.1

FC Luzern1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SION · PPG 1.69

FC LUZERN · PPG 1.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Sion (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +1.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

FC Luzern (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Sion face FC Luzern in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Sion a 50% chance, the draw 22% and FC Luzern 28%, so FC Sion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FC Sion and 1.6 for FC Luzern (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Sion are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.58 for FC Luzern. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.3%.

FC Sion vs FC Luzern Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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