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Rosengård vs Jonkopings Sodra Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 15 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:00

Rosengård

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jonkopings Sodra

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.1%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.8%1-112.7%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.9%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 51.3% 1.95 -5.8%

Draw 26.1% 28.6% 3.50 -5.2%

Away win 25.6% 30.8% 3.25 -10.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 58.8% 1.70 -14.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 36.4% 2.75 -12.3%

BTTS 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Home O1.5 43.9% 54.6% 1.83 -19.7%

Away O1.5 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosengård1.4

Jonkopings Sodra1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENGÅRD · PPG 1.17

JONKOPINGS SODRA · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rosengård (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -5.8%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.2%

Jonkopings Sodra (A) 25.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosengård face Jonkopings Sodra in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosengård a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Jonkopings Sodra 26%, so Rosengård are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rosengård and 1.1 for Jonkopings Sodra (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosengård are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.29 for Jonkopings Sodra. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.0%.

Rosengård vs Jonkopings Sodra Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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