Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / AFC Eskilstuna vs Umeå FC

AFC Eskilstuna vs Umeå FC Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 15 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:00

AFC Eskilstuna

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Umeå FC

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.7%0-25.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.3%1-111.2%1-28.6%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.2%2-26.3%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.6%3-14.0%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 47.6% 2.10 -15.2%

Draw 24.9% 26.3% 3.80 -3.2%

Away win 34.7% 35.7% 2.80 -2.8%

Over 2.5 61.2% 69.0% 1.45 -11.3%

Over 3.5 37.3% 46.5% 2.15 -19.8%

BTTS 62.1% 71.4% 1.40 -13.1%

Home O1.5 45.4% 58.8% 1.70 -22.8%

Away O1.5 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

A 35% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Eskilstuna1.5

Umeå FC1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC ESKILSTUNA · PPG 1.14

UMEÅ FC · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AFC Eskilstuna (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -15.2%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.2%

Umeå FC (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Eskilstuna face Umeå FC in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Umeå FC 35%, so AFC Eskilstuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.5 for Umeå FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.14 for Umeå FC.

AFC Eskilstuna vs Umeå FC Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions