Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 / Varegg vs Fana

Varegg vs Fana Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 12:00

Varegg

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fana

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.7%0-26.6%0-34.3%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.8%1-19.5%1-29.3%1-36.1%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.4%2-16.7%2-26.6%2-34.3%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.6%3-13.2%3-23.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 45.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 62.4% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 50.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob62.4%

A 45% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varegg1.4

Fana2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VAREGG · PPG 0.83

FANA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.55 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Varegg (H) 32.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fana (A) 45.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Varegg face Fana in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varegg a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Fana 45%, so Fana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Varegg and 2.0 for Fana (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varegg are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Fana.

Varegg vs Fana Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 Predictions