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Gneist vs Vard Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 12:00

Gneist

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vard

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.7%0-23.4%0-32.9%0-4+3.4%1 1-02.1%1-15.4%1-26.9%1-35.8%1-4+6.8%2 2-02.1%2-15.4%2-26.9%2-35.8%2-4+6.8%3 3-01.4%3-13.6%3-24.6%3-33.9%3-4+4.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.9%4+-23.6%4+-33.1%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.1% — — —

Draw 20.9% — — —

Away win 49.1% — — —

Over 2.5 72.7% — — —

Over 3.5 53.3% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob70.3%

A 49% / xG 2.0-2.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 1–2 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.4%

#4 2–3 5.8%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gneist2.0

Vard2.5

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GNEIST · PPG 0.86

VARD · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.54 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gneist (H) 30.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vard (A) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gneist face Vard in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gneist a 30% chance, the draw 21% and Vard 49%, so Vard are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Gneist and 2.5 for Vard (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gneist are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.50 for Vard.

Gneist vs Vard Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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