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Vard vs Sogndal II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Regular Season - 13 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 16:00

Vard

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sogndal II

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.3%0-22.2%0-31.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-03.0%1-15.7%1-25.5%1-33.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.8%2-17.2%2-26.9%2-34.4%2-4+3.2%3 3-03.2%3-16.1%3-25.8%3-33.7%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-17.0%4+-26.7%4+-34.3%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% — — —

Draw 21.0% — — —

Away win 26.9% — — —

Over 2.5 72.6% — — —

Over 3.5 52.4% — — —

BTTS 69.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.3% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.5%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.2%

#2 2–2 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 3–1 6.1%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vard2.5

Sogndal II1.9

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VARD · PPG 2.50

SOGNDAL II · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vard (H) 52.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sogndal II (A) 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vard face Sogndal II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vard a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Sogndal II 27%, so Vard are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Vard and 1.9 for Sogndal II (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vard are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Sogndal II.

Vard vs Sogndal II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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