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Os vs Varegg Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 12:00

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Varegg

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.4%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.7%1-11.9%1-21.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-03.8%2-14.3%2-22.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.7%3-16.3%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-021.1%4+-123.5%4+-213.2%4+-34.9%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% — — —

Draw 17.3% — — —

Away win 9.5% — — —

Over 2.5 79.6% — — —

Over 3.5 61.3% — — —

BTTS 63.9% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 91%

BTTS 91%

Score Hit 18%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.9%

H 73% / xG 4.4-1.1 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 7.0%

#2 3–1 6.3%

#3 4–0 6.3%

#4 5–1 6.2%

#5 3–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Os4.4

Varegg1.1

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 61.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OS · PPG 3.00

VAREGG · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.30 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.20 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Os (H) 73.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Varegg (A) 9.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Os face Varegg in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Os a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Varegg 10%, so Os are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for Os and 1.1 for Varegg (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Os are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Varegg.

Os vs Varegg Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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