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Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Xiamen Feilu Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 11:35

Chengdu Rongcheng II

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Xiamen Feilu

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-114.0%0-28.4%0-33.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.0%1-113.3%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.2%2-16.3%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.6%3-12.0%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.4% 31.3% 3.20 +3.7%

Draw 30.0% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

Away win 37.6% 46.5% 2.15 -19.2%

Over 2.5 44.5% 42.0% 2.38 +5.9%

Over 3.5 23.9% 23.5% 4.25 +0.9%

BTTS 49.2% 51.0% 1.96 -3.6%

Home O1.5 32.6% 30.5% 3.28 +6.9%

Away O1.5 36.5% 39.8% 2.51 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chengdu Rongcheng II0.9

Xiamen Feilu1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENGDU RONGCHENG II · PPG 0.88

XIAMEN FEILU · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 2.16 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chengdu Rongcheng II (H) 32.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +3.7%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.0%

Xiamen Feilu (A) 37.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chengdu Rongcheng II face Xiamen Feilu in China - League Two on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chengdu Rongcheng II a 32% chance, the draw 30% and Xiamen Feilu 38%, so Xiamen Feilu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Chengdu Rongcheng II and 1.2 for Xiamen Feilu (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chengdu Rongcheng II are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.00 for Xiamen Feilu. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +6.9%.

Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Xiamen Feilu Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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