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Nantong Haimen Codion vs Tai'an Tiankuang Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 11:30

Nantong Haimen Codion

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tai'an Tiankuang

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-111.0%0-25.9%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.3%1-113.2%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.4%2-18.0%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.0%3-13.2%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 43.5% 2.30 -6.9%

Draw 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -11.0%

Away win 32.3% 34.5% 2.90 -6.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 42.6% 2.35 +18.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 23.3% 4.30 +14.6%

BTTS 52.6% 51.8% 1.93 +1.5%

Home O1.5 33.1% 38.3% 2.61 -13.6%

Away O1.5 36.5% 32.3% 3.10 +13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantong Haimen Codion1.2

Tai'an Tiankuang1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTONG HAIMEN CODION · PPG 1.12

TAI'AN TIANKUANG · PPG 1.44

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.13, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nantong Haimen Codion (H) 40.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -6.9%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.0%

Tai'an Tiankuang (A) 32.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantong Haimen Codion face Tai'an Tiankuang in China - League Two on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantong Haimen Codion a 41% chance, the draw 27% and Tai'an Tiankuang 32%, so Nantong Haimen Codion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nantong Haimen Codion and 1.1 for Tai'an Tiankuang (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantong Haimen Codion are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.44 for Tai'an Tiankuang. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%.

Nantong Haimen Codion vs Tai'an Tiankuang Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League Two Predictions