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Shanghai Second vs Changchun Xidu Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 08:00

Shanghai Second

PPG 0.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Changchun Xidu

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-110.3%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.1%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-18.3%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.8%3-13.5%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 43.5% 2.30 +4.0%

Draw 27.4% 34.5% 2.90 -12.3%

Away win 27.4% 33.3% 3.00 -10.7%

Over 2.5 45.7% 42.0% 2.38 +8.8%

Over 3.5 26.5% 23.5% 4.25 +7.6%

BTTS 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Home O1.5 35.8% 37.9% 2.64 -5.5%

Away O1.5 25.2% 32.3% 3.10 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanghai Second1.3

Changchun Xidu0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI SECOND · PPG 0.56

CHANGCHUN XIDU · PPG 0.78

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shanghai Second (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +4.0%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.3%

Changchun Xidu (A) 27.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanghai Second face Changchun Xidu in China - League Two on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanghai Second a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Changchun Xidu 27%, so Shanghai Second are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Shanghai Second and 0.9 for Changchun Xidu (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanghai Second are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 0.78 for Changchun Xidu. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.8%.

Shanghai Second vs Changchun Xidu Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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