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Nardo vs Manfredonia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Nardo

PPG 2.07 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Manfredonia

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.07), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-14.6%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.6%1-18.8%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.9%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-15.4%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-14.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.9% — — —

Draw 19.9% — — —

Away win 9.3% — — —

Over 2.5 44.3% — — —

Over 3.5 23.2% — — —

BTTS 35.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob35.0%

H 71% / xG 1.9-0.5 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.6%

#2 2–0✓ 15.9%

#3 3–0 10.2%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nardo1.9

Manfredonia0.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NARDO · PPG 2.07

MANFREDONIA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.07), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nardo (H) 70.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Manfredonia (A) 9.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nardo face Manfredonia in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nardo a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Manfredonia 9%, so Nardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Nardo and 0.5 for Manfredonia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nardo are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 0.67 for Manfredonia. This match finished 2-0.

Nardo vs Manfredonia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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