Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone H / Heraclea vs Barletta

Heraclea vs Barletta Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Heraclea

PPG 0.93 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Barletta

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-120.5%0-211.7%0-34.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.3%1-111.8%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-03.0%2-13.4%2-21.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.6%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.5% — — —

Draw 31.8% — — —

Away win 49.7% — — —

Over 2.5 24.8% — — —

Over 3.5 9.6% — — —

BTTS 29.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob29.8%

A 50% / xG 0.6-1.1 / U2.5 25% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.5%

#2 0–0 17.9%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 0–2 11.7%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heraclea0.6

Barletta1.1

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.8% · O3.5 PROB 9.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HERACLEA · PPG 0.93

BARLETTA · PPG 2.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Heraclea (H) 18.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Barletta (A) 49.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Heraclea face Barletta in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heraclea a 19% chance, the draw 32% and Barletta 50%, so Barletta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Heraclea and 1.1 for Barletta (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 25% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heraclea are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 2.07 for Barletta. This match finished 1-3.

Heraclea vs Barletta Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone H Predictions