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Gravina vs Paganese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Gravina

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Paganese

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-19.8%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-112.8%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-18.3%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.6%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% — — —

Draw 28.7% — — —

Away win 23.1% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 16.2% — — —

BTTS 40.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob40.2%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.8%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gravina1.3

Paganese0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 16.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GRAVINA · PPG 1.73

PAGANESE · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.73), Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Gravina (H) 48.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paganese (A) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gravina face Paganese in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gravina a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Paganese 23%, so Gravina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gravina and 0.8 for Paganese (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gravina are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.80 for Paganese. This match finished 1-0.

Gravina vs Paganese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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