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North Star vs Capalaba Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 10:30

North Star

PPG 0.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Capalaba

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.5%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.8%1-111.1%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.2%3-15.3%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.3%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 64.5% 1.55 -25.0%

Draw 23.8% 22.7% 4.40 +2.8%

Away win 27.8% 23.1% 4.33 +12.2%

Over 2.5 61.3% 76.9% 1.30 -20.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 56.5% 1.77 -30.3%

BTTS 62.1% 74.1% 1.35 -16.2%

Home O1.5 49.4% 75.2% 1.33 -34.3%

Away O1.5 36.5% 45.5% 2.20 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 18.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.1%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Star1.7

Capalaba1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH STAR · PPG 0.38

CAPALABA · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

North Star (H) 48.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -25.0%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +2.8%

Capalaba (A) 27.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Star face Capalaba in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Star a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Capalaba 28%, so North Star are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for North Star and 1.3 for Capalaba (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Star are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 0.56 for Capalaba. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.0%.

North Star vs Capalaba Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions