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Sydney Olympic vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 06:00

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 68.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-15.7%0-27.9%0-37.3%0-4+9.9%1 1-02.3%1-16.3%1-28.8%1-38.1%1-4+11.0%2 2-01.3%2-13.5%2-24.9%2-34.5%2-4+6.1%3 3-00.5%3-11.3%3-21.8%3-31.7%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.4% 16.0% 6.25 -6.0%

Draw 16.9% 22.7% 4.40 -15.4%

Away win 68.7% 71.4% 1.40 -3.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 69.0% 1.45 -2.9%

Over 3.5 47.4% 47.6% 2.10 -0.5%

BTTS 62.4% 64.5% 1.55 -3.3%

Home O1.5 32.6% 32.3% 3.10 +1.1%

Away O1.5 67.8% 73.5% 1.36 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob62.4%

A 69% / xG 1.1-2.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.8%

#2 1–3 8.1%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 0–3 7.3%

#5 1–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Olympic1.1

APIA Leichhardt Tigers2.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.73

APIA LEICHHARDT TIGERS · PPG 1.92

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.66 for Away, form 0.73 vs 1.92

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Olympic (H) 14.4%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -6.0%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -15.4%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (A) 68.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Olympic face APIA Leichhardt Tigers in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Olympic a 14% chance, the draw 17% and APIA Leichhardt Tigers 69%, so APIA Leichhardt Tigers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sydney Olympic and 2.8 for APIA Leichhardt Tigers (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Olympic are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 1.92 for APIA Leichhardt Tigers. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.8%.

Sydney Olympic vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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