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Rockdale City Suns vs Manly United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 05:00

Rockdale City Suns

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Manly United

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.0%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.6%1-111.6%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.3%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 56.5% 1.77 -14.0%

Draw 24.4% 26.7% 3.75 -5.1%

Away win 26.9% 27.0% 3.70 -0.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 64.5% 1.55 -17.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 42.0% 2.38 -23.4%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 49.4% 61.7% 1.62 -20.0%

Away O1.5 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rockdale City Suns1.7

Manly United1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCKDALE CITY SUNS · PPG 1.33

MANLY UNITED · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rockdale City Suns (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -14.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.1%

Manly United (A) 26.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rockdale City Suns face Manly United in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rockdale City Suns a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Manly United 27%, so Rockdale City Suns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rockdale City Suns and 1.1 for Manly United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rockdale City Suns are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.75 for Manly United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%.

Rockdale City Suns vs Manly United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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