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St. George Saints vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 08:30

St. George Saints

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

SD Raiders

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.1%0-27.2%0-33.8%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.2%1-111.5%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.6%2-17.3%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.0%3-13.1%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% 41.7% 2.40 -23.0%

Draw 25.1% 30.3% 3.30 -10.3%

Away win 42.8% 38.2% 2.62 +12.1%

Over 2.5 57.5% 61.7% 1.62 -6.9%

Over 3.5 33.5% 40.0% 2.50 -16.3%

BTTS 57.5% 69.0% 1.45 -16.6%

Home O1.5 36.2% 51.3% 1.95 -29.4%

Away O1.5 48.0% 48.8% 2.05 -1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.5%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 5.7%

#4 2–1 7.3%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. George Saints1.3

SD Raiders1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 0.83

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

St. George Saints (H) 32.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -23.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.3%

SD Raiders (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. George Saints face SD Raiders in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. George Saints a 32% chance, the draw 25% and SD Raiders 43%, so SD Raiders are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for St. George Saints and 1.6 for SD Raiders (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. George Saints are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.27 for SD Raiders. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.2%.

St. George Saints vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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