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Sutherland Sharks vs Wollongong Wolves Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 06:00

Sutherland Sharks

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wollongong Wolves

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.1%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.7%1-112.3%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.3%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.7%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 52.4% 1.91 -3.5%

Draw 25.2% 27.8% 3.60 -5.6%

Away win 24.3% 29.9% 3.35 -11.2%

Over 2.5 51.6% 61.7% 1.62 -16.4%

Over 3.5 29.4% 39.2% 2.55 -15.0%

BTTS 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 57.8% 1.73 -21.5%

Away O1.5 28.2% 40.8% 2.45 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutherland Sharks1.5

Wollongong Wolves1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTHERLAND SHARKS · PPG 1.45

WOLLONGONG WOLVES · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sutherland Sharks (H) 50.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -3.5%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.6%

Wollongong Wolves (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutherland Sharks face Wollongong Wolves in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutherland Sharks a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Wollongong Wolves 24%, so Sutherland Sharks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sutherland Sharks and 1.0 for Wollongong Wolves (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutherland Sharks are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.31 for Wollongong Wolves. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.1%.

Sutherland Sharks vs Wollongong Wolves Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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