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Kahibah vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 05:00

Kahibah

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.4%0-24.5%0-33.9%0-4+4.8%1 1-02.2%1-15.9%1-27.7%1-36.7%1-4+8.3%2 2-01.9%2-15.0%2-26.6%2-35.8%2-4+7.1%3 3-01.1%3-12.9%3-23.8%3-33.3%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.8%4+-22.4%4+-32.1%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Draw 20.2% 23.1% 4.33 -7.5%

Away win 50.3% 57.1% 1.75 -12.0%

Over 2.5 72.6% 78.1% 1.28 -7.1%

Over 3.5 52.0% 55.9% 1.79 -6.9%

BTTS 69.5% 75.8% 1.32 -8.3%

Home O1.5 53.5% 49.8% 2.01 +7.5%

Away O1.5 67.0% 69.9% 1.43 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 0%

ROI 19.3%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob69.5%

A 50% / xG 1.7-2.6 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.7%

#2 1–1 5.9%

#3 1–3 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kahibah1.7

Belmont Swansea2.6

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KAHIBAH · PPG 0.88

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.90 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Kahibah (H) 29.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.4%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -7.5%

Belmont Swansea (A) 50.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kahibah face Belmont Swansea in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kahibah a 30% chance, the draw 20% and Belmont Swansea 50%, so Belmont Swansea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kahibah and 2.6 for Belmont Swansea (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kahibah are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.67 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%.

Kahibah vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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