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Afragolese vs Real Normanna Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Afragolese

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Real Normanna

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.3%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-18.0%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-111.1%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-17.7%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.4%3-13.6%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 15.0% — — —

Over 2.5 30.9% — — —

Over 3.5 13.4% — — —

BTTS 32.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob32.2%

H 57% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.8%

#2 0–0✓ 14.3%

#3 2–0 13.7%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Afragolese1.4

Real Normanna0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.9% · O3.5 PROB 13.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AFRAGOLESE · PPG 2.00

REAL NORMANNA · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.3%

Win probability 1X2

Afragolese (H) 57.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Normanna (A) 15.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Afragolese face Real Normanna in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Afragolese a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Real Normanna 15%, so Afragolese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Afragolese and 0.6 for Real Normanna (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Afragolese are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Real Normanna. This match finished 0-0.

Afragolese vs Real Normanna Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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