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USD Palmese vs Ischia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

USD Palmese

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ischia

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.4%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.6%1-111.2%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.7%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% — — —

Draw 23.5% — — —

Away win 20.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 51.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.1%

H 56% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 11.6%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

USD Palmese1.7

Ischia1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

USD PALMESE · PPG 1.20

ISCHIA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

USD Palmese (H) 55.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ischia (A) 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

USD Palmese face Ischia in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives USD Palmese a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Ischia 21%, so USD Palmese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for USD Palmese and 1.0 for Ischia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, USD Palmese are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.13 for Ischia. This match finished 1-0.

USD Palmese vs Ischia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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