Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone G / Olbia vs Trastevere

Olbia vs Trastevere Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Olbia

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Trastevere

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-18.5%0-28.5%0-35.7%0-4+4.5%1 1-04.9%1-19.8%1-29.8%1-36.6%1-4+5.3%2 2-02.8%2-15.7%2-25.7%2-33.8%2-4+3.0%3 3-01.1%3-12.2%3-22.2%3-31.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.5% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 57.1% — — —

Over 2.5 61.3% — — —

Over 3.5 39.0% — — —

BTTS 59.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob59.3%

A 57% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.5%

#4 0–1 8.5%

#5 1–3 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olbia1.2

Trastevere2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OLBIA · PPG 1.00

TRASTEVERE · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Olbia (H) 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Trastevere (A) 57.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Olbia face Trastevere in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olbia a 22% chance, the draw 21% and Trastevere 57%, so Trastevere are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Olbia and 2.0 for Trastevere (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olbia are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Trastevere. This match finished 3-2.

Olbia vs Trastevere Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone G Predictions