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CF Montreal vs New England Revolution Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:30

CF Montreal

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

New England Revolution

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-19.0%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.4%1-112.5%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 28.9% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 54.1% — — —

Home O1.5 42.9% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -28.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.1%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Montreal1.4

New England Revolution1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CF MONTREAL · PPG 1.38

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CF Montreal (H) 44.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

New England Revolution (A) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Montreal face New England Revolution in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Montreal a 44% chance, the draw 27% and New England Revolution 29%, so CF Montreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for CF Montreal and 1.2 for New England Revolution (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Montreal are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.67 for New England Revolution.

CF Montreal vs New England Revolution Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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