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FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:30

FC Cincinnati

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Jose Earthquakes

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.7%0-23.0%0-32.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-02.6%1-15.8%1-26.6%1-35.0%1-4+4.8%2 2-02.8%2-16.3%2-27.2%2-35.4%2-4+5.2%3 3-02.0%3-14.6%3-25.2%3-33.9%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-14.1%4+-24.7%4+-33.5%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 52.6% 1.90 -19.6%

Draw 20.5% 23.3% 4.30 -7.1%

Away win 37.2% 30.8% 3.25 +20.9%

Over 2.5 73.5% 78.1% 1.28 -5.9%

Over 3.5 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

BTTS 70.3% 78.1% 1.28 -10.0%

Home O1.5 60.1% 69.4% 1.44 -13.5%

Away O1.5 67.8% 54.6% 1.83 +24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -28.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob70.3%

A 37% / xG 2.2-2.3 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 1–1 5.8%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–1 6.3%

#5 2–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cincinnati2.2

San Jose Earthquakes2.3

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CINCINNATI · PPG 2.00

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES · PPG 2.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Cincinnati (H) 42.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -19.6%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -7.1%

San Jose Earthquakes (A) 37.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cincinnati face San Jose Earthquakes in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cincinnati a 42% chance, the draw 21% and San Jose Earthquakes 37%, so FC Cincinnati are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for FC Cincinnati and 2.3 for San Jose Earthquakes (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cincinnati are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.38 for San Jose Earthquakes. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +24.1%.

FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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