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New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:30

New York Red Bulls

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orlando City SC

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.7%0-21.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.0%1-14.9%1-24.0%1-32.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-04.5%2-17.3%2-25.9%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.4%3-17.2%3-25.8%3-33.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-110.9%4+-28.9%4+-34.8%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 47.2% 2.12 +19.1%

Draw 19.8% 24.4% 4.10 -11.3%

Away win 24.0% 35.5% 2.82 -19.4%

Over 2.5 72.7% 76.9% 1.30 -5.5%

Over 3.5 53.3% 55.6% 1.80 -4.1%

BTTS 70.3% 76.9% 1.30 -8.6%

Home O1.5 77.1% 64.5% 1.55 +19.5%

Away O1.5 48.0% 56.5% 1.77 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -28.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob70.3%

H 56% / xG 3.0-1.6 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.3%

#2 3–1 7.2%

#3 2–2 5.9%

#4 3–2 5.8%

#5 1–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York Red Bulls3.0

Orlando City SC1.6

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK RED BULLS · PPG 1.38

ORLANDO CITY SC · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New York Red Bulls (H) 56.2%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +19.1%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -11.3%

Orlando City SC (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York Red Bulls face Orlando City SC in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York Red Bulls a 56% chance, the draw 20% and Orlando City SC 24%, so New York Red Bulls are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for New York Red Bulls and 1.6 for Orlando City SC (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York Red Bulls are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.78 for Orlando City SC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.7%.

New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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