Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / Ventura County vs North Texas

Ventura County vs North Texas Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 02:00

Ventura County

PPG 2.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

North Texas

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.0%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.2%1-110.9%1-25.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.6%3-15.9%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% — — —

Draw 23.5% — — —

Away win 23.2% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ventura County1.8

North Texas1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VENTURA COUNTY · PPG 2.09

NORTH TEXAS · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ventura County (H) 53.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

North Texas (A) 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ventura County face North Texas in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ventura County a 53% chance, the draw 24% and North Texas 23%, so Ventura County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ventura County and 1.1 for North Texas (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ventura County are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.09 for North Texas.

Ventura County vs North Texas Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Next Pro Predictions