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New York City II vs Philadelphia Union II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:00

New York City II logo
New York City II
PPG 1.75 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Philadelphia Union II logo
Philadelphia Union II
PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.4%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.3%1-111.2%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.7%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 52.2%
Draw 23.9%
Away win 23.9%
Over 2.5 57.4%
Over 3.5 35.1%
BTTS 55.4%
Home O1.5 49.4%
Away O1.5 28.9%

League track record

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%
O2.5 79%
BTTS 36%
Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%
#2 2–0 9.9%
#3 2–1 9.8%
#4 1–0 11.3%
#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York City II1.7
Philadelphia Union II1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK CITY II · PPG 1.75

PHILADELPHIA UNION II · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New York City II (H) 52.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Philadelphia Union II (A) 23.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

New York City II face Philadelphia Union II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City II a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Philadelphia Union II 24%, so New York City II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for New York City II and 1.0 for Philadelphia Union II (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City II are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Philadelphia Union II.

PredictVantage

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