Today / USA - MLS / Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew

Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:30

Inter Miami

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Columbus Crew

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.9%0-21.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.2%1-15.5%1-23.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.1%2-18.1%2-25.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.9%3-17.9%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-111.8%4+-27.8%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% 59.9% 1.67 +5.0%

Draw 16.3% 23.3% 4.30 -17.9%

Away win 20.7% 23.8% 4.20 -7.8%

Over 2.5 72.7% 74.1% 1.35 -1.8%

Over 3.5 51.5% 54.1% 1.85 -4.7%

BTTS 63.5% 72.5% 1.38 -12.4%

Home O1.5 77.1% 70.4% 1.42 +9.5%

Away O1.5 43.7% 44.4% 2.25 -1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -28.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 63% / xG 2.9-1.3 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 3–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Miami2.9

Columbus Crew1.3

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 51.5%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MIAMI · PPG 1.71

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 0.62

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 1.71 vs 0.62 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Inter Miami (H) 62.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +5.0%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -17.9%

Columbus Crew (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Miami face Columbus Crew in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Miami a 63% chance, the draw 16% and Columbus Crew 21%, so Inter Miami are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Inter Miami and 1.3 for Columbus Crew (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Miami are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.62 for Columbus Crew. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.7%.

Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions